The deadline for the U.S. Department of Interior to determine the post-2026 future of Lake Powell and Lake Mead — and the entire Colorado River basin — is now six months away. As precarious negotiations continue between the Upper and Lower Basin stakeholders, the new presidential administration has also cast concerns on the future of the critical water system.   

“Honestly, I’ve seen nothing out of the administration that suggests that they even know there is a Colorado River,” said Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet during a press call on Thursday, Feb. 13. “I had a daily conversation with somebody at least, probably three times a day, in my office with somebody on the Colorado River, and we’ve seen nothing so far.”

What is going on with Colorado River negotiations? 

Water allocation in the Colorado River basin traces back to a 1922 compact. All subsequent agreements — including the 2007 operational guidelines for Lake Powell and Lake Mead which are currently being renegotiated — are subject to the 103-year-old document. 

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Today, 40 million people across seven states and 30 tribes rely on the water supplied by the river system. 

On Thursday, Feb. 20, Colorado water officials provided state lawmakers in the House Agriculture, Water and Natural Resources Committee with a high-level update on the negotiations, which will set the basin’s future operating regime. 

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Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s commissioner on the Upper Colorado River Commission, positioned the negotiations as “an opportunity to do better” and learn from the past.  

“The bottom line is that we all need to live within the means of what the river provides,” Mitchell said. 

While the four Upper Basin states including Colorado rely predominantly on snowpack for water supply, the Lower Basin states rely on releases from Lake Powell and Lake Mead. 

“In the Upper Basin we can’t use what is not there, we can only use what the river provides in a given year,” Mitchell said. “That’s why for the last 25 years or so, the Upper Basin states have used less than their 3 to 4 million acre-feet compact apportionment. It ranges because hydrology ranges.”

However, the Lower Basin states, relying on large reservoir releases have been able to “sustain uses over 10 million acre-feet annually,” she added. 

“These Lower Basin demands have remained relatively consistent and have even increased in many cases (since 2007) … despite the fact that in the same period, the Colorado River Basin has seen record low, extraordinary drought inflows as climate change has hit the basin hard,” Mitchell said. 

The 2007 agreement governing the two reservoirs came at a time when both Lake Powell and Lake Mead were full, and all operations have been legal under the current framework. But conditions have changed. 

“We’re sitting at about 35% in both those reservoirs … that’s 65% empty,” she added. “There is so much at stake.”

In November, the Bureau of Reclamation released a document with five management options for the river’s post-2026 future. 

Mitchell said that the Upper Basin states submitted an alternative that offers a more sustainable supply-driven approach to management, rather than allowing downstream demand to dictate releases. These states have also agreed to consider conservation efforts and strategic releases, she said.

“We know that in the Lower Basin, this will mean reductions in use,” Mitchell said. “In the Upper Basin, we will continue to strictly administer water rights, and our water users will continue to take painful and uncompensated reductions as a result.”

While elements of the Upper Basin’s proposal — and what was proposed by Lower Basin states— have been incorporated into the Bureau of Reclamation’s alternatives, negotiations are attempting to strike a balance.

“I think it’s very fair to say that (Department of the Interior) and (Bureau of) Reclamation’s preference is to have a seven-state consensus and to proceed with that,” said Anne Castle, former federal appointee and chair of the Upper Colorado River Commission. “But they’re also working against a timeline. This all has to be done by August of 2026, and there’s a lot of process that has to happen in between.”

Castle was appointed as the U.S. Commissioner to the Upper Colorado River Commission by former President Joe Biden in 2022. Seven days after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Castle resigned from the position as requested by the new administration. 

Mitchell said she felt “cautiously optimistic” about reaching some sort of consensus despite challenges and differing opinions. 

“The discussions have not always been fun. They’ve definitely not been easy. But at this time, everyone is still at the table and working hard,” Mitchell said. “We all know that we get the best solutions when the basin states work together to define our own destiny.” 

Finding consensus could become more tenuous, however, under the new administration. 

On Thursday, Castle had mixed emotions about the administration’s potential impact. 

“I’m hopeful that the change in administration won’t cause a significant change in policy direction on Colorado River issues. It hasn’t in the past, and I’m hopeful that it won’t now,” Castle said. “But I’m less optimistic about that than I was a month ago. I still think that’s the case, but now I’m not sure.” 

At last week’s press call, Bennet made a call to look beyond partisan politics when it comes to the Colorado River. 

“Nobody’s making any more water, as you know, and it’s very problematic,” Bennet said. “It’s another reminder of why we have to work together in a democracy to get anything done and to make sure that we are securing the interests of the next generation of Coloradans and the next generation of Americans.”