State officials at the Division of Water Resources office in Steamboat Springs are predicting river flows and reservoir levels — which are key for agricultural, municipal and recreational uses — to land this year slightly below conditions of 2024.

That means, based on current snowpack and water supply forecasts, the water season for 2025 should land about in the middle, or at median, of the past 34 years of record keeping of water flows down the Yampa River, said William Summers, water resources assistant division engineer in Steamboat.

During the annual State of the River meeting Tuesday, March 25 for the Upper Yampa River hosted at the Steamboat Springs Community Center, the engineer outlined current snowpack, status of reservoirs and projected stream flows. The engineer predicted the reservoir capacities and administrative calls for water this year will be similar to 2024, with some caveats.

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Last year, Stillwater, Yamcolo, Stagecoach, Fish Creek and Elkhead reservoirs all filled to capacity. However this year, Stillwater, Yamcolo and Stagecoach reservoirs in southern Routt County “are a little uncertain, probably pretty close,” Summers said.

The engineer noted Fish Creek Reservoir east of Steamboat Springs and Elkhead Reservoir on the border of Routt and Moffat counties “pretty much fill every year.”

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“Everything is right on par for last year as far as percentage full; everything is pretty close to where it was this same time last year,” Summers said.

He noted the 2024 maximum Yampa River flows ranked roughly at the median, or ranked 16th out of the last 34 years, based on historical Yampa River flows recorded at the Maybell Gauge in western Moffat County. In the past 34 years, the highest maximum water flow volume year at the Maybell Gauge was in 2011, and the lowest was in 2002 followed by 2021.

Last year, eight creeks in the Yampa River Basin went “on call,” meaning water rights holders with senior rights called for their water and thus junior water rights holders were curtailed. The same creek systems are predicted to go on administrative call again this year including the Bear River, Middle Hunt Creek, South Hunt Creek, Oak Creek, Little Bear Creek, Fortification Creek, Slater Creek and the Elk River, the engineer said.

“We are expecting to see similar calls as 2024, plus most likely Trout Creek will go on call,” Summers said. He noted Trout Creek was fortified last year by increased releases from Sheriff Reservoir, which has been undergoing repairs in recent years.

Summers said the Yampa Valley is faring better in water predictions currently in comparison to concerns in southwestern and south-central Colorado where snow water equivalent median percentages currently are 75% and 71% respectively.

The Yampa-White-Little Snake River basins currently sit at 101% of median snowpack water equivalent based on Natural Resources Conservation Service data from 1991 to 2020. The data is collected by eight area snow telemetry stations, or SNOTEL, that help forecast water supply and drought conditions.

Looking more closely at individual SNOTEL stations on March 23, Dry Lake SNOTEL near Buffalo Pass registered 120% of median, while on the lower end Bear River SNOTEL by Stillwater Reservoir was at 95% of median.

The engineer said current soil moisture models for the Yampa River Basin show drier than normal conditions, which is important to understand because soil moisture levels are key for surface water runoff levels.

Summers said national models for seasonal temperature outlook show the probability of higher than normal temperatures for April, May and June.

Higher temperatures have a direct impact on river flows, noted Amy Moyer from the Colorado River District in a presentation at the Tuesday event.

“Recent studies done by the U.S. Geological Survey indicate that for every degree Fahrenheit increase in average annual temperature, streamflow within the Colorado River Basin, including the Yampa River, will diminish between 3-5%,” Moyer said.

The annual State of the River meetings, also hosted in Craig this week by the Colorado River District, provide a space for community members in 15 Western Slope counties to learn about and discuss priority water issues in the region.

Meeting organizers also encouraged community members to take advantage of the new Yampa River Dashboard website at YourYampaRiver.org as a resource hub to easily find a wide variety of data points about the Yampa River Basin ranging from temperatures and stream flows to year-over-year precipitation information.